A fall COVID surge may just nonetheless occur in Utah

Knowledge: Utah Division of Well being; Chart: Axios Visuals

Utah’s COVID hospitalizations are declining this September — however that does not imply we now have sidestepped a possible fall surge.

Riding the scoop: Fewer Utahns are hospitalized with COVID now than in overdue September of the previous two years, state information display.

Why it issues: In earlier years, COVID hospitalizations had begun to upward thrust sharply via this time, following a upward thrust in new instances with the onset of fall and the beginning of faculty.

  • If hospitalizations keep low, it would imply we don’t seem to be in for a large iciness surge this 12 months.

Sure, however: Fall and iciness COVID surges have not adopted the calendar precisely, this means that a spike in instances and hospitalizations may just nonetheless happen.

  • Ultimate iciness’s greatest surge got here in January with the omicron variant, and delta started circulating in midsummer, riding up instances even sooner than faculty started in fall 2021.
  • 2020’s fall surge started in mid-September, so a large build up within the coming weeks would not be extraordinarily some distance in the back of.

By way of the numbers: Ultimate week Utah noticed about 18 COVID hospitalizations in keeping with day.

  • That is some distance underneath the 31 day by day hospitalizations right through the similar week in 2020, and 59 in 2021.
  • Hospitalizations had been losing lovely incessantly since mid-July.

What they are pronouncing: “We are surely trending in the proper route … however we are surely no longer throughout the thick of fall,” Dr. Angela Dunn, director of the Salt Lake County Well being Division mentioned in a commentary to Axios. “Ultimate 12 months we had will increase via October and into early November.”

  • Well being officers are urging Utahns to vaccinate and get the brand new bivalent booster and isolate if they’re ill.

Of be aware: Public take a look at websites have wound down and been changed via at-home exams, so statewide case counts aren’t correct.

  • That suggests a large upward thrust in hospitalizations may just happen with little caution.

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